How it works

The projection

For every game the model projects each team's points from recent offense, the opponent's defense and home field, then adjusts for players who are out. The result is a projected score, total, margin and win chance, with an 80% range for the margin.

Picks

The pick is the side the model favors. The ATS pick compares the model's margin with the market line. When the starting quarterback is in doubt, the game is marked "No pick" and kept out of the record; an alternate-QB scenario shows what changes if the other quarterback starts.

Grading

Each week is locked after its games are final and can't be changed afterward. The track record compares how far the model's margins missed the final scores with how far the market's lines missed. Each new model release is tested on past seasons before it is used, and its backtest is published.